The hype around AI was rising throughout 2022, and has reached a fever pitch today.
We’ve seen hype cycles swell around specific technologies before. Blockchain, Metaverse, NFTs, the list goes on. It remains to be seen what tangible value is created after the heat dies down, but in the meantime, some of the world’s biggest companies are taking it very seriously. Google—which internally reoriented itself around AI years ago—is at the forefront of this movement, so the recent letter published by Google CEO Sundar Pichai is consequential. After all, billions of people use Google Search to learn about the world, and Alphabet is one of the world’s most valuable, powerful tech companies. But before we “read between the lines” of the letter, it’s worth revisiting the larger context that this letter addresses.
OpenAI Has Entered The Chat
Artificial intelligence has been chalking up a number of wins in recent months, but it was DALL-E Mini and ChatGPT that really allowed generative AI to burst into the public consciousness. In fact, ChatGPT became so popular in a short amount of time, that Google declared an internal “code red” to address the issue. Leaders at Google were well aware of the disruptive power of conversational AI because they were already testing their own models internally. Microsoft recognized the potential as well, and invested $10 billion in OpenAI, which runs ChatGPT as well as a number of other publicly-accessible AI tools. Microsoft’s intention was to bring the magic of ChatGPT over to their Bing search engine—and perhaps steal market share away from Google. This sets the stage for what we’re seeing today. Essentially every big tech firm is singing AI’s praises, and Microsoft and Google appear to be entering into an AI race.
The AI Race is Heating Up
If there were any questions about how seriously Google was taking Microsoft’s new partnership with OpenAI, recent messaging should remove all doubt. The letter above, by Sundar Pichai speaks volumes while never straying far from official talking points. First, here is the high-level messaging in Pichai’s letter:
Google has already been in the AI game for years now Bard is going to make Google search more ChatGPT-like Google is only late to the party because they’ve been careful
On this last point: a message from the CEO, which reaffirms the company’s commitment to AI would normally coincide with a product launch, not one that will be released to the public “in the coming weeks”. This messaging highlights a key barrier that Google is facing. Fearing the “reputational damage” that could come from rolling products out prematurely, the company has been forced to move slower than the market now expects. Google has already endured a painful misstep after reporters discovered an incorrect answer in a promotional video touting the conversational AI service, Bard. This simple mistake cost Alphabet $100 billion in market value—demonstrating how high the stakes are now that Big Tech’s AI progress is under the microscope. The timing of this letter is also very telling. The letter was published the day before Bing rolled out new AI-enabled features to the public. Let the jockeying for position begin.
Nobody Wants to be Left Behind
Google and Microsoft may be the biggest players battling it out in the AI space, but there are indicators all over that AI represents a massive technological shift that will impact a number of industries. From Fiverr’s “Open Letter to AI” to Baidu’s recent AI chatbot announcement, it seems that every day brings fresh news that fuels AI hype. One thing’s for sure: AI will be integrated into digital tools in more noticeable ways. And for better or worse, we’ll all be participating the experiment. on But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run. So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.
Road to a Bank Run
SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.
As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list. Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet. The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued. Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. These totaled nearly $152 billion, or about 97% of all deposits. By the end of the day, customers had tried to withdraw $42 billion in deposits.
What Triggered the SVB Collapse?
While the collapse of SVB took place over the course of 44 hours, its roots trace back to the early pandemic years. In 2021, U.S. venture capital-backed companies raised a record $330 billion—double the amount seen in 2020. At the time, interest rates were at rock-bottom levels to help buoy the economy. Matt Levine sums up the situation well: “When interest rates are low everywhere, a dollar in 20 years is about as good as a dollar today, so a startup whose business model is “we will lose money for a decade building artificial intelligence, and then rake in lots of money in the far future” sounds pretty good. When interest rates are higher, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, so investors want cash flows. When interest rates were low for a long time, and suddenly become high, all the money that was rushing to your customers is suddenly cut off.” Source: Pitchbook Why is this important? During this time, SVB received billions of dollars from these venture-backed clients. In one year alone, their deposits increased 100%. They took these funds and invested them in longer-term bonds. As a result, this created a dangerous trap as the company expected rates would remain low. During this time, SVB invested in bonds at the top of the market. As interest rates rose higher and bond prices declined, SVB started taking major losses on their long-term bond holdings.
Losses Fueling a Liquidity Crunch
When SVB reported its fourth quarter results in early 2023, Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency took notice. In early March, it said that SVB was at high risk for a downgrade due to its significant unrealized losses. In response, SVB looked to sell $2 billion of its investments at a loss to help boost liquidity for its struggling balance sheet. Soon, more hedge funds and venture investors realized SVB could be on thin ice. Depositors withdrew funds in droves, spurring a liquidity squeeze and prompting California regulators and the FDIC to step in and shut down the bank.
What Happens Now?
While much of SVB’s activity was focused on the tech sector, the bank’s shocking collapse has rattled a financial sector that is already on edge.
The four biggest U.S. banks lost a combined $52 billion the day before the SVB collapse. On Friday, other banking stocks saw double-digit drops, including Signature Bank (-23%), First Republic (-15%), and Silvergate Capital (-11%).
Source: Morningstar Direct. *Represents March 9 data, trading halted on March 10.
When the dust settles, it’s hard to predict the ripple effects that will emerge from this dramatic event. For investors, the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen announced confidence in the banking system remaining resilient, noting that regulators have the proper tools in response to the issue.
But others have seen trouble brewing as far back as 2020 (or earlier) when commercial banking assets were skyrocketing and banks were buying bonds when rates were low.
